Commanders vs Vikings – Week 14 2025
WAS
MIN
WAS
AWAY
0@31
MIN BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 0, Minnesota Vikings 31.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Commanders, 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: WAS 58%Our line: WAS -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -2.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.137Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.005 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (28)
+0.142 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (4)
45.6% (10)Offense success %42.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but MIN won. Projected margin was 2.8, the model overestimated by 33.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 32.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@WASW9 2022 | MIN 20, WAS 17 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs MIN
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 2.8. The market has WAS at -1.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, WAS 0, MIN 31. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Washington Commanders at -1.5, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 14, the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.8, 0.7 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 20, WAS 17 in Week 9 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: WAS -0.137 against MIN -0.016.
