2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
WAS @ MIN – Week 14 2025
WAS
MIN
WAS
AWAY
0@31
MIN +31
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: WAS
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: WAS 58%Projected margin: 0.8
WAS
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
0.8
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but MIN won. Projected margin was 0.8 -- the model overestimated by 30.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 32.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | WAS market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
WAS
D.Samuel
WR
188.2SEASON PPR
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
140.3SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
126.4SEASON PPR
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
201.5SEASON PPR
J.Addison
WR
135.1SEASON PPR
J.Mason
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@WASW9 2022 | MIN 20, WAS 17 | MIN | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES