WAS @ MIN – Week 14 2025
WAS
MIN
WAS
AWAY
0@31
MIN BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 58%Our line: WAS -2.8
WAS
PICK SIDE
-1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.8
OUR LINE
-139
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.137Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.005Offense EPA / play-0.116
+0.142Defense EPA / play-0.100
45.6%Offense success %42.6%
47.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but MIN won. Projected margin was 2.8, the model overestimated by 33.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 32.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | WAS | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -115 | -105 |
| Our fair price | -139 | +139 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD WAS -1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
51%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
WAS
D.Samuel
WR
188.2 SEASON PPR
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
140.3 SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
126.4 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
M.Mariota1695 yd · 10 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Croskey-Merritt805 yd · 8 TD
C.Rodriguez500 yd · 6 TD
M.Mariota297 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
D.Samuel72 rec · 727 yd · 5 TD
T.McLaurin38 rec · 582 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@WASW9 2022 | MIN 20, WAS 17 | MIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 2.8. The market has WAS at -1.5.
The model projects 42.8 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 20, WAS 17 in Week 9 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: WAS -0.137 against MIN -0.016.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
