Seahawks vs Falcons – Week 14 2025
SEA
ATL
SEA
AWAY
37@9
SEA BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 37, Atlanta Falcons 9.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Seahawks, 3 Falcons.
Model confidence: SEA 69%Our line: SEA -6.7
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -6.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.150Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.033 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.021 (24)
-0.117 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.004 (15)
46.3% (7)Offense success %43.7% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 28. Off by 21.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@ATLW7 2024 | SEA 34, ATL 14 | ATL | L |
| ATL@SEAW3 2022 | ATL 27, SEA 23 | SEA | L |
| SEA@ATLW1 2020 | SEA 38, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs ATL
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 6.7. The market has SEA at -7.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 37, ATL 9. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -7.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 14, the Seattle Seahawks were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 1.9 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 34, ATL 14 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.150 against ATL -0.018.
