PHI @ LAC – Week 14 2025
PHI
LAC
PHI
AWAY
19@22
LAC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: LAC 58%Our line: LAC -2.6
LAC
PICK SIDE
+1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.6
OUR LINE
-137
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.105Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.026Offense EPA / play-0.024
-0.079Defense EPA / play-0.083
43.1%Offense success %43.1%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 2.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -120 | +100 |
| Our fair price | +137 | -137 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LAC +1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.24
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
48%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for LAC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PHI
J.Hurts
QB
301.1 SEASON PPR
S.Barkley
RB
232.3 SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
220.3 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
J.Hurts3224 yd · 25 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
S.Barkley1140 yd · 7 TD
J.Hurts421 yd · 8 TD
T.Bigsby344 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
D.Smith77 rec · 1008 yd · 4 TD
A.Brown78 rec · 1003 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@PHIW9 2021 | LAC 27, PHI 24 | LAC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs LAC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 2.6. The market has LAC at +1.5.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 27, PHI 24 in Week 9 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.105 against LAC +0.059.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
