Eagles vs Chargers – Week 14 2025
PHI
LAC
PHI
AWAY
19@22
LAC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 19, Los Angeles Chargers 22.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Eagles, 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 58%Our line: LAC -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -2.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.105Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.026 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.024 (25)
-0.079 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.083 (7)
43.1% (20)Offense success %43.1% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 2.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@PHIW9 2021 | LAC 27, PHI 24 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 2.6. The market has LAC at +1.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, PHI 19, LAC 22. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at +1.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 14, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 4.2 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 27, PHI 24 in Week 9 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.105 against LAC +0.059.
