DAL @ DET – Week 14 2025
DAL
DET
DAL
AWAY
30@44
DET BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 64%Our line: DET -4.7
DET
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.7
OUR LINE
-175
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.070Net EPA / play+0.091
+0.097Offense EPA / play+0.081
+0.167Defense EPA / play-0.010
46.6%Offense success %45.2%
48.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 14. Off by 9.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +160 | -192 |
| Our fair price | +175 | -175 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8 SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9 SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
242.8 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
D.Prescott4552 yd · 30 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Williams1201 yd · 11 TD
M.Davis250 yd · 2 TD
D.Prescott177 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
G.Pickens93 rec · 1429 yd · 9 TD
C.Lamb75 rec · 1077 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@DALW6 2024 | DET 47, DAL 9 | DET | W |
| DET@DALW17 2023 | DET 19, DAL 20 | DET | L |
| DET@DALW7 2022 | DET 6, DAL 24 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 4.7. The market has DET at -3.5.
The model projects 45.8 combined points. The market total is 55.5.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 47, DAL 9 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DAL -0.070 against DET +0.091.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
