Cowboys vs Lions – Week 14 2025
DAL
DET
DAL
AWAY
30@44
DET BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 30, Detroit Lions 44.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cowboys, 5 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 64%Our line: DET -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -4.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.070Net EPA / play+0.091
+0.097 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.081 (7)
+0.167 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.010 (14)
46.6% (6)Offense success %45.2% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 14. Off by 9.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@DALW6 2024 | DET 47, DAL 9 | DET | W |
| DET@DALW17 2023 | DET 19, DAL 20 | DET | L |
| DET@DALW7 2022 | DET 6, DAL 24 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 4.7. The market has DET at -3.5.
Detroit Lions won, DAL 30, DET 44. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -3.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 14, the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 55.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 9.7 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 47, DAL 9 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DAL -0.070 against DET +0.091.
