Falcons vs Seahawks – Week 3 2022
ATL
SEA
ATL
AWAY
27@23
ATL BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 27, Seattle Seahawks 23.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons, 3 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 63%Our line: SEA -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.075Net EPA / play-0.023
+0.005 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.003 (18)
+0.080 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.020 (25)
45.5% (10)Offense success %44.2% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but ATL won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 8.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
SEA
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@ATLW14 2025 | SEA 37, ATL 9 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ATLW7 2024 | SEA 34, ATL 14 | ATL | L |
| SEA@ATLW1 2020 | SEA 38, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 4.5. The market has SEA at -1.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 27, SEA 23. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -1.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 3, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 4.9 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 37, ATL 9 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Seattle Seahawks: ATL -0.075 against SEA -0.023.
