2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ SEA – Week 3 2022
ATL
SEA
ATL
AWAY
27@23
ATL +4
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
SEA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SEA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SEA 63%Projected margin: 3.4
SEA
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
3.4
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but ATL won. Projected margin was 3.4 -- the model overestimated by 7.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | SEA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -106 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
SEA
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ATL
Marcus Mariota
QB
196.6SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
178.6SEASON PPR
Tyler Allgeier
RB
159.4SEASON PPR
SEA
Geno Smith
QB
303.9SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
239.3SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@ATLW14 2025 | SEA 37, ATL 9 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ATLW7 2024 | SEA 34, ATL 14 | ATL | L |
| SEA@ATLW1 2020 | SEA 38, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES