Eagles vs Commanders – Week 3 2022
PHI
WAS
PHI
AWAY
24@8
PHI BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 24, Washington Commanders 8.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Commanders.
Model confidence: PHI 67%Our line: PHI -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -6.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.172Net EPA / play-0.003
+0.107 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.078 (26)
-0.064 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.075 (4)
48.3% (3)Offense success %40.4% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 16. Off by 9.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW1 2026 | WAS 22, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs WAS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 6.1. The market has PHI at -6.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 24, WAS 8. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -6.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 3, the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 0.3 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, WAS 22, PHI 24 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.172 against WAS -0.003.
