2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ TB – Week 3 2022
GB
TB
GB
AWAY
14@12
GB +2
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 62%Projected margin: 2.7
TB
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
2.7
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but GB won. Projected margin was 2.7 -- the model overestimated by 4.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -123 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
No noteworthy trends
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
GB
Aaron Jones
RB
248.6SEASON PPR
Aaron Rodgers
QB
239.2SEASON PPR
Allen Lazard
WR
174.8SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@GBW15 2023 | TB 34, GB 20 | GB | L |
| GB@TBW6 2020 | GB 10, TB 38 | GB | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES