Packers vs Buccaneers – Week 3 2022
GB
TB
GB
AWAY
14@12
GB BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 14, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Packers, 4 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 62%Our line: TB -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -4.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.034Net EPA / play-0.013
+0.003 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
+0.037 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (12)
45.8% (7)Offense success %43.8% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but GB won. Projected margin was 4.0, the model overestimated by 6.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
No noteworthy trends
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@TBW4 2026 | GB 17, TB 14 | GB | W |
| TB@GBW15 2023 | TB 34, GB 20 | GB | L |
| GB@TBW6 2020 | GB 10, TB 38 | GB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 4.0. The market has TB at -1.0.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 14, TB 12. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -1.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 3, the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.7, 7.2 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 17, TB 14 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: GB -0.034 against TB -0.013.
