2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ NE – Week 3 2022
BAL
NE
BAL
AWAY
37@26
BAL +11
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NE 67%Projected margin: 4.4
NE
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
4.4
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but BAL won. Projected margin was 4.4 -- the model overestimated by 15.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +129 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
236.1SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
190.5SEASON PPR
Devin Duvernay
WR
116.1SEASON PPR
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BALW16 2025 | NE 28, BAL 24 | BAL | L |
| BAL@NEW10 2020 | BAL 17, NE 23 | BAL | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES