Ravens vs Patriots – Week 3 2022
BAL
NE
BAL
AWAY
37@26
BAL BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 37, New England Patriots 26.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: NE 67%Our line: NE -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
NE +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -5.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.019Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.004 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.054 (24)
-0.014 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.089 (3)
45.3% (11)Offense success %40.9% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but BAL won. Projected margin was 5.9, the model overestimated by 16.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BALW16 2025 | NE 28, BAL 24 | BAL | L |
| BAL@NEW10 2020 | BAL 17, NE 23 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 5.9. The market has NE at +2.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 37, NE 26. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at +2.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 3, the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.6, 3.1 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 28, BAL 24 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: BAL +0.019 against NE +0.035.
