SF @ DEN – Week 3 2022
SF
DEN
SF
AWAY
10@11
DEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: SF 67%Our line: SF -6.0
SF
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.0
OUR LINE
-203
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.211Net EPA / play-0.060
+0.085Offense EPA / play-0.109
-0.126Defense EPA / play-0.049
46.2%Offense success %38.1%
40.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but DEN won. Projected margin was 6.0, the model overestimated by 7.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SF | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -110 | -101 |
| Our fair price | -203 | +203 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
51%
DIFFERENCE
+16%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
238.4 SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
227.8 SEASON PPR
George Kittle
TE
200.5 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo2437 yd · 16 TD · 4 INT
RUSHING
Christian McCaffrey746 yd · 6 TD
Jeff Wilson468 yd · 2 TD
Elijah Mitchell279 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk78 rec · 1015 yd · 8 TD
George Kittle60 rec · 765 yd · 11 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 6.0. The market has SF at -1.0.
The model projects 47.6 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 3 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.211 against DEN -0.060.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
