49ers vs Broncos – Week 3 2022
SF
DEN
SF
AWAY
10@11
DEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 10, Denver Broncos 11.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 49ers, 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: SF 67%Our line: SF -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -6.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.211Net EPA / play-0.060
+0.085 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (30)
-0.126 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.049 (9)
46.2% (6)Offense success %38.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but DEN won. Projected margin was 6.0, the model overestimated by 7.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SF
238.4 SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
227.8 SEASON PPR
200.5 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo2437 yd · 16 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk78 rec · 1015 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs DEN
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 6.0. The market has SF at -1.0.
Denver Broncos won, SF 10, DEN 11. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -1.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 3, the San Francisco 49ers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 3.6 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, DEN 14, SF 24 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.211 against DEN -0.060.
