Rams vs Cardinals – Week 3 2022
LA
ARI
LA
AWAY
20@12
LA BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 20, Arizona Cardinals 12.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Rams, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: LA 60%Our line: LA -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.105Net EPA / play-0.104
-0.088 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (28)
+0.017 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (23)
41.0% (23)Offense success %40.6% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 8. Off by 4.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LAW6 2026 | ARI 18, LA 16 | LA | L |
| ARI@LAW18 2025 | ARI 20, LA 37 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW14 2025 | LA 45, ARI 17 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW17 2024 | ARI 9, LA 13 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW2 2024 | LA 10, ARI 41 | LA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs ARI
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 3.3. The market has LA at -3.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 20, ARI 12. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -3.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 3, the Los Angeles Rams were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 1.6 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 18, LA 16 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Arizona Cardinals: LA -0.105 against ARI -0.104.
