Bengals vs Jets – Week 3 2022
CIN
NYJ
CIN
AWAY
27@12
CIN BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 27, New York Jets 12.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals, 1 Jets.
Model confidence: CIN 65%Our line: CIN -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -5.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.125Net EPA / play-0.036
+0.077 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.087 (27)
-0.048 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
47.3% (4)Offense success %39.0% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 15. Off by 10.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@CINW8 2025 | NYJ 39, CIN 38 | CIN | L |
| CIN@NYJW8 2021 | CIN 31, NYJ 34 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs NYJ
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 5.0. The market has CIN at -6.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 27, NYJ 12. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -6.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 3, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 1.3 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, NYJ 39, CIN 38 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.125 against NYJ -0.036.
