2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ CLE – Week 3 2022
PIT
CLE
PIT
AWAY
17@29
CLE +12
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER C
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 58%Projected margin: -0.3
PIT
PICK SIDE
+4.5
SPREAD
-0.3
PROJ MARGIN
+191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but CLE won. Projected margin was 0.3 -- the model overestimated by 12.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +4.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | +191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +183 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
No noteworthy trends
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
225.5SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
180.7SEASON PPR
George Pickens
WR
166.5SEASON PPR
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
281.4SEASON PPR
Amari Cooper
WR
246.0SEASON PPR
Jacoby Brissett
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW12 2024 | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW11 2023 | PIT 10, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES