2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ CLE – Week 17 2025
PIT
CLE
PIT
AWAY
6@13
CLE +7
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER A
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 75%Projected margin: -6.8
PIT
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-6.8
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but CLE won. Projected margin was 6.8 -- the model overestimated by 13.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
14 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1SEASON PPR
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW12 2024 | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW11 2023 | PIT 10, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW2 2023 | CLE 22, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES