DET @ MIN – Week 17 2025
DET
MIN
DET
AWAY
10@23
MIN BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: DET 59%Our line: DET -3.2
DET
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.2
OUR LINE
-146
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.091Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.081Offense EPA / play-0.116
-0.010Defense EPA / play-0.100
45.2%Offense success %42.6%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but MIN won. Projected margin was 3.2, the model overestimated by 16.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -360 | +285 |
| Our fair price | -146 | +146 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
75%
DIFFERENCE
-16%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
366.9 SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
324.0 SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
297.1 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
J.Goff4564 yd · 34 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Gibbs1223 yd · 13 TD
D.Montgomery716 yd · 8 TD
J.Goff45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.St. Brown117 rec · 1401 yd · 11 TD
J.Williams65 rec · 1117 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW16 2023 | DET 30, MIN 24 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 3.2. The market has DET at -7.0.
The model projects 45.1 combined points. The market total is 45.5.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, THU 4:30 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 27, DET 24 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against MIN -0.016.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
