Lions vs Vikings – Week 17 2025
DET
MIN
DET
AWAY
10@23
MIN BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 10, Minnesota Vikings 23.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions, 5 Vikings.
Model confidence: DET 59%Our line: DET -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -3.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.091Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.081 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (28)
-0.010 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (4)
45.2% (12)Offense success %42.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but MIN won. Projected margin was 3.2, the model overestimated by 16.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@DETW9 2025 | MIN 27, DET 24 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW16 2023 | DET 30, MIN 24 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs MIN
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 3.2. The market has DET at -7.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, DET 10, MIN 23. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at -7.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 17, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 0.4 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, THU 4:30 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 27, DET 24 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against MIN -0.016.
