Vikings vs Lions – Week 9 2025
MIN
DET
MIN
AWAY
27@24
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 27, Detroit Lions 24.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 76% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Vikings, 4 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 76%Our line: DET -9.7
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -9.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.091
-0.116 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.081 (7)
-0.100 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.010 (14)
42.6% (23)Offense success %45.2% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A+-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but MIN won. Projected margin was 9.7, the model overestimated by 12.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@MINW17 2025 | DET 10, MIN 23 | DET | L |
| MIN@DETW18 2024 | MIN 9, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW7 2024 | DET 31, MIN 29 | DET | W |
| MIN@DETW18 2023 | MIN 20, DET 30 | DET | W |
| DET@MINW16 2023 | DET 30, MIN 24 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DET by 9.7. The market has DET at -9.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 27, DET 24. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 76% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at -9.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 9, the Minnesota Vikings were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 1.3 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, DET 10, MIN 23 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: MIN -0.016 against DET +0.091.
