49ers vs Giants – Week 9 2025
SF
NYG
SF
AWAY
34@24
SF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 34, New York Giants 24.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 49ers, 6 Giants.
Model confidence: SF 68%Our line: SF -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -6.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.075
+0.088 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (17)
+0.070 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.087 (25)
48.3% (4)Offense success %42.1% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 10. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
NYG
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@SFW3 2023 | NYG 12, SF 30 | SF | W |
| SF@NYGW3 2020 | SF 36, NYG 9 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs NYG
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 6.4. The market has SF at -2.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 34, NYG 24. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -2.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 9, the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 2.1 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, NYG 12, SF 30 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.018 against NYG -0.075.
