DEN @ HOU – Week 9 2025
DEN
HOU
DEN
AWAY
18@15
DEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 64%Our line: DEN -4.8
DEN
PICK SIDE
+1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.8
OUR LINE
-178
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.118
+0.050Offense EPA / play-0.013
-0.088Defense EPA / play-0.131
44.2%Offense success %41.3%
36.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 4.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DEN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +105 | -125 |
| Our fair price | -178 | +178 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN +1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.24
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
47%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
HOU
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8 SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7 SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
B.Nix3931 yd · 25 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Dobbins772 yd · 4 TD
R.Harvey540 yd · 7 TD
B.Nix356 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
C.Sutton74 rec · 1017 yd · 7 TD
T.Franklin65 rec · 709 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@HOUW13 2023 | DEN 17, HOU 22 | HOU | W |
| HOU@DENW2 2022 | HOU 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.8. The market has DEN at +1.5.
The model projects 44.4 combined points. The market total is 40.5.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, DEN 17, HOU 22 in Week 13 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against HOU +0.118.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
