2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ HOU – Week 9 2025
DEN
HOU
DEN
AWAY
18@15
DEN +3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DEN 64%Projected margin: -2.0
DEN
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-2.0
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 2.0. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +124 | Won · +$1.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
HOU
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6SEASON PPR
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@HOUW13 2023 | DEN 17, HOU 22 | HOU | W |
| HOU@DENW2 2022 | HOU 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES