Broncos vs Texans – Week 9 2025
DEN
HOU
DEN
AWAY
18@15
DEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 18, Houston Texans 15.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Broncos, 2 Texans.
Model confidence: DEN 64%Our line: DEN -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.118
+0.050 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.013 (21)
-0.088 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.131 (1)
44.2% (16)Offense success %41.3% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 4.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
HOU
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@HOUW13 2023 | DEN 17, HOU 22 | HOU | W |
| HOU@DENW2 2022 | HOU 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs HOU
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.8. The market has DEN at +1.5.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 18, HOU 15. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at +1.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 9, the Denver Broncos were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 3.9 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, DEN 17, HOU 22 in Week 13 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against HOU +0.118.
