Ravens vs Dolphins – Week 9 2025
BAL
MIA
BAL
AWAY
28@6
BAL BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 28, Miami Dolphins 6.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins.
Model confidence: BAL 61%Our line: BAL -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -3.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.010Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.034 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (22)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.088 (26)
44.6% (13)Offense success %41.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 22. Off by 18.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@BALW17 2023 | MIA 19, BAL 56 | BAL | W |
| MIA@BALW2 2022 | MIA 42, BAL 38 | MIA | W |
| BAL@MIAW10 2021 | BAL 10, MIA 22 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs MIA
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 3.9. The market has BAL at -7.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 28, MIA 6. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -7.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 9, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 6.4 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, MIA 19, BAL 56 in Week 17 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.010 against MIA -0.105.
