2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ MIA – Week 9 2025
BAL
MIA
BAL
AWAY
28@6
BAL +22
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 61%Projected margin: -1.0
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
-1.0
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 1.0. Actual: 22. Off by 21.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
214.9SEASON PPR
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@BALW17 2023 | MIA 19, BAL 56 | BAL | W |
| MIA@BALW2 2022 | MIA 42, BAL 38 | MIA | W |
| BAL@MIAW10 2021 | BAL 10, MIA 22 | BAL | L |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES