2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ BAL – Week 17 2023
MIA
BAL
MIA
AWAY
19@56
BAL +37
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 64%Projected margin: 2.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
2.9
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 2.9. Actual: 37. Off by 34.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 34.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -180 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
376.4SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
270.4SEASON PPR
Raheem Mostert
RB
267.7SEASON PPR
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
331.2SEASON PPR
Zay Flowers
WR
206.4SEASON PPR
Gus Edwards
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@MIAW9 2025 | BAL 28, MIA 6 | BAL | W |
| MIA@BALW2 2022 | MIA 42, BAL 38 | MIA | W |
| BAL@MIAW10 2021 | BAL 10, MIA 22 | BAL | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES