Dolphins vs Ravens – Week 17 2023
MIA
BAL
MIA
AWAY
19@56
BAL BY 37
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 19, Baltimore Ravens 56.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 64%Our line: BAL -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.215
+0.097 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.066 (5)
-0.039 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.149 (2)
47.2% (5)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 4.8. Actual: 37. Off by 32.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 34.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@MIAW9 2025 | BAL 28, MIA 6 | BAL | W |
| MIA@BALW2 2022 | MIA 42, BAL 38 | MIA | W |
| BAL@MIAW10 2021 | BAL 10, MIA 22 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.8. The market has BAL at -3.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, MIA 19, BAL 56. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -3.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 17, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 1.3 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 28, MIA 6 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: MIA +0.136 against BAL +0.215.
