MIA @ BAL – Week 17 2023
MIA
BAL
MIA
AWAY
19@56
BAL BY 37
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 64%Our line: BAL -4.8
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.8
OUR LINE
-178
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.215
+0.097Offense EPA / play+0.066
-0.039Defense EPA / play-0.149
47.2%Offense success %47.4%
42.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 4.8. Actual: 37. Off by 32.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 34.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +150 | -180 |
| Our fair price | +178 | -178 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
62%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
376.4 SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
270.4 SEASON PPR
Raheem Mostert
RB
267.7 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa4624 yd · 29 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert1012 yd · 18 TD
De'Von Achane800 yd · 8 TD
Jeff Wilson188 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1799 yd · 13 TD
Jaylen Waddle72 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@MIAW9 2025 | BAL 28, MIA 6 | BAL | W |
| MIA@BALW2 2022 | MIA 42, BAL 38 | MIA | W |
| BAL@MIAW10 2021 | BAL 10, MIA 22 | BAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.8. The market has BAL at -3.0.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 28, MIA 6 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: MIA +0.136 against BAL +0.215.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
