Saints vs Buccaneers – Week 17 2023
NO
TB
NO
AWAY
23@13
NO BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Saints, 5 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 61%Our line: TB -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -3.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.086Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.014 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (14)
-0.100 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.024 (18)
42.1% (15)Offense success %39.6% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but NO won. Projected margin was 3.8, the model overestimated by 13.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Derek Carr3878 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| TB@NOW4 2023 | TB 26, NO 9 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 3.8. The market has TB at -2.5.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 23, TB 13. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 17, the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.5, 2.0 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 24, TB 20 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.086 against TB +0.007.
