2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ MIN – Week 17 2023
GB
MIN
GB
AWAY
33@10
GB +23
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: MIN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIN 58%Projected margin: 0.7
MIN
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
0.7
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but GB won. Projected margin was 0.7 -- the model overestimated by 23.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 24.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -112 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
GB
Jordan Love
QB
319.1SEASON PPR
Jayden Reed
WR
217.2SEASON PPR
Romeo Doubs
WR
174.4SEASON PPR
MIN
Jordan Addison
WR
221.3SEASON PPR
T.J. Hockenson
TE
219.0SEASON PPR
Justin Jefferson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@MINW18 2025 | GB 3, MIN 16 | GB | L |
| MIN@GBW12 2025 | MIN 6, GB 23 | GB | W |
| GB@MINW17 2024 | GB 25, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@GBW4 2024 | MIN 31, GB 29 | GB | L |
| MIN@GBW8 2023 | MIN 24, GB 10 | MIN | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES