Packers vs Vikings – Week 17 2023
GB
MIN
GB
AWAY
33@10
GB BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 33, Minnesota Vikings 10.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 6 Packers, 4 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 58%Our line: MIN -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -2.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.056Net EPA / play-0.023
+0.064 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.041 (17)
+0.008 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (20)
44.6% (9)Offense success %42.4% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but GB won. Projected margin was 2.6, the model overestimated by 25.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 24.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@MINW1 2026 | GB 22, MIN 39 | MIN | W |
| GB@MINW18 2025 | GB 3, MIN 16 | GB | L |
| MIN@GBW12 2025 | MIN 6, GB 23 | GB | W |
| GB@MINW17 2024 | GB 25, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@GBW4 2024 | MIN 31, GB 29 | GB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 2.6. The market has MIN at -1.0.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 33, MIN 10. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -1.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 17, the Green Bay Packers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 2.9 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, GB 22, MIN 39 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.056 against MIN -0.023.
