GB @ MIN – Week 18 2025
GB
MIN
GB
AWAY
3@16
MIN BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: GB 50%Our line: GB +0.0
GB
PICK SIDE
+12.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.082Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.115Offense EPA / play-0.116
+0.033Defense EPA / play-0.100
47.7%Offense success %42.6%
44.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but MIN won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 13.0 points.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | GB | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +470 | -650 |
| Our fair price | +100 | -100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB +12.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
17%
DIFFERENCE
+33%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
237.1 SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
235.1 SEASON PPR
R.Doubs
WR
165.4 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
J.Love3381 yd · 23 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
J.Jacobs929 yd · 13 TD
E.Wilson496 yd · 3 TD
J.Love199 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
R.Doubs55 rec · 724 yd · 6 TD
C.Watson35 rec · 611 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@GBW12 2025 | MIN 6, GB 23 | GB | W |
| GB@MINW17 2024 | GB 25, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@GBW4 2024 | MIN 31, GB 29 | GB | L |
| GB@MINW17 2023 | GB 33, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
| MIN@GBW8 2023 | MIN 24, GB 10 | MIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 0.0. The market has GB at +12.5.
The model projects 44.8 combined points. The market total is 37.5.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, MIN 6, GB 23 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.082 against MIN -0.016.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
