2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ MIN – Week 18 2025
GB
MIN
GB
AWAY
3@16
MIN +13
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 50%Projected margin: 0.6
GB
PICK SIDE
+12.5
SPREAD
0.6
PROJ MARGIN
+604
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but MIN won. Projected margin was 0.6 -- the model overestimated by 12.4 points.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +12.5 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +604 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
237.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
235.1SEASON PPR
R.Doubs
WR
165.4SEASON PPR
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
201.5SEASON PPR
J.Addison
WR
135.1SEASON PPR
J.Mason
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@GBW12 2025 | MIN 6, GB 23 | GB | W |
| GB@MINW17 2024 | GB 25, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
| MIN@GBW4 2024 | MIN 31, GB 29 | GB | L |
| GB@MINW17 2023 | GB 33, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
| MIN@GBW8 2023 | MIN 24, GB 10 | MIN | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES