DET @ CHI – Week 18 2025
DET
CHI
DET
AWAY
19@16
DET BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 71%Our line: CHI -7.4
CHI
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.4
OUR LINE
-243
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.091Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.081Offense EPA / play+0.080
-0.010Defense EPA / play+0.018
45.2%Offense success %45.8%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but DET won. Projected margin was 7.4, the model overestimated by 10.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +150 | -180 |
| Our fair price | +243 | -243 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
62%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
4 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
366.9 SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
324.0 SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
297.1 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
J.Goff4564 yd · 34 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Gibbs1223 yd · 13 TD
D.Montgomery716 yd · 8 TD
J.Goff45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.St. Brown117 rec · 1401 yd · 11 TD
J.Williams65 rec · 1117 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
| CHI@DETW11 2023 | CHI 26, DET 31 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 7.4. The market has CHI at -3.5.
The model projects 45.9 combined points. The market total is 51.5.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Detroit Lions, CHI 21, DET 52 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against CHI +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
