Lions vs Bears – Week 18 2025
DET
CHI
DET
AWAY
19@16
DET BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 19, Chicago Bears 16.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 6 Lions, 1 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 71%Our line: CHI -7.4
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -7.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.091Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.081 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.080 (8)
-0.010 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (19)
45.2% (12)Offense success %45.8% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but DET won. Projected margin was 7.4, the model overestimated by 10.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
4 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
| CHI@DETW11 2023 | CHI 26, DET 31 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 7.4. The market has CHI at -3.5.
Detroit Lions won, DET 19, CHI 16. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Chicago Bears at -3.5, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 18, the Detroit Lions were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 5.6 below the market.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Detroit Lions, CHI 21, DET 52 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against CHI +0.061.
