2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ KC – Week 17 2023
CIN
KC
CIN
AWAY
17@25
KC +8
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 62%Projected margin: 2.8
KC
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 8. Off by 5.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -345 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CIN
Joe Mixon
RB
267.0SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
262.7SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
147.2SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
280.2SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
219.4SEASON PPR
Isiah Pacheco
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@KCW2 2024 | CIN 25, KC 26 | KC | W |
| KC@CINW13 2022 | KC 24, CIN 27 | KC | L |
| KC@CINW17 2021 | KC 31, CIN 34 | KC | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES