Bengals vs Chiefs – Week 17 2023
CIN
KC
CIN
AWAY
17@25
KC BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 17, Kansas City Chiefs 25.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 62%Our line: KC -4.2
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -4.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.044Net EPA / play+0.107
-0.010 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (10)
+0.034 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.086 (6)
44.0% (10)Offense success %43.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 4.2. Actual: 8. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@KCW2 2024 | CIN 25, KC 26 | KC | W |
| KC@CINW13 2022 | KC 24, CIN 27 | KC | L |
| KC@CINW17 2021 | KC 31, CIN 34 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 4.2. The market has KC at -7.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, CIN 17, KC 25. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -7.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 17, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 0.1 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, CIN 25, KC 26 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: CIN -0.044 against KC +0.107.
