Chiefs vs Bengals – Week 17 2021
KC
CIN
KC
AWAY
31@34
CIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 31, Cincinnati Bengals 34.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals.
Model confidence: KC 64%Our line: KC -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -4.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.119Net EPA / play+0.069
+0.144 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.057 (12)
+0.025 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (13)
51.1% (1)Offense success %44.2% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but CIN won. Projected margin was 4.9, the model overestimated by 7.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
13 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@KCW2 2024 | CIN 25, KC 26 | KC | W |
| CIN@KCW17 2023 | CIN 17, KC 25 | KC | W |
| KC@CINW13 2022 | KC 24, CIN 27 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs CIN
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 4.9. The market has KC at -3.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, KC 31, CIN 34. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -3.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 17, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.8, 2.2 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, CIN 25, KC 26 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.119 against CIN +0.069.
