2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ CIN – Week 17 2021
KC
CIN
KC
AWAY
31@34
CIN +3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 64%Projected margin: -5.9
KC
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-5.9
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but CIN won. Projected margin was 5.9 -- the model overestimated by 8.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -178 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
13 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
361.7SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
296.5SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
262.8SEASON PPR
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@KCW2 2024 | CIN 25, KC 26 | KC | W |
| CIN@KCW17 2023 | CIN 17, KC 25 | KC | W |
| KC@CINW13 2022 | KC 24, CIN 27 | KC | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES