Cardinals vs Cowboys – Week 17 2021
ARI
DAL
ARI
AWAY
25@22
ARI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 25, Dallas Cowboys 22.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: DAL 61%Our line: DAL -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -3.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.122Net EPA / play+0.187
+0.073 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.096 (5)
-0.049 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
46.8% (9)Offense success %47.0% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but ARI won. Projected margin was 3.8, the model overestimated by 6.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5 SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
207.6 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray3787 yd · 24 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner752 yd · 15 TD
Chase Edmonds592 yd · 2 TD
Kyler Murray423 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Christian Kirk77 rec · 982 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@DALW9 2025 | ARI 27, DAL 17 | DAL | L |
| DAL@ARIW3 2023 | DAL 16, ARI 28 | DAL | L |
| ARI@DALW6 2020 | ARI 38, DAL 10 | DAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 3.8. The market has DAL at -6.5.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 25, DAL 22. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -6.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 17, the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.1, 3.9 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 27, DAL 17 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: ARI +0.122 against DAL +0.187.
