2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ DAL – Week 17 2021
ARI
DAL
ARI
AWAY
25@22
ARI +3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DAL 61%Projected margin: 4.9
DAL
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
4.9
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but ARI won. Projected margin was 4.9 -- the model overestimated by 7.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -262 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
207.6SEASON PPR
DAL
Dak Prescott
QB
320.6SEASON PPR
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
252.1SEASON PPR
CeeDee Lamb
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@DALW9 2025 | ARI 27, DAL 17 | DAL | L |
| DAL@ARIW3 2023 | DAL 16, ARI 28 | DAL | L |
| ARI@DALW6 2020 | ARI 38, DAL 10 | DAL | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES