ARI @ DAL – Week 17 2021
ARI
DAL
ARI
AWAY
25@22
ARI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 17
2021 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 61%Our line: DAL -3.8
DAL
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.8
OUR LINE
-157
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.122Net EPA / play+0.187
+0.073Offense EPA / play+0.096
-0.049Defense EPA / play-0.091
46.8%Offense success %47.0%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but ARI won. Projected margin was 3.8, the model overestimated by 6.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +225 | -262 |
| Our fair price | +157 | -157 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5 SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
207.6 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray3787 yd · 24 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner752 yd · 15 TD
Chase Edmonds592 yd · 2 TD
Kyler Murray423 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Christian Kirk77 rec · 982 yd · 5 TD
A.J. Green54 rec · 848 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@DALW9 2025 | ARI 27, DAL 17 | DAL | L |
| DAL@ARIW3 2023 | DAL 16, ARI 28 | DAL | L |
| ARI@DALW6 2020 | ARI 38, DAL 10 | DAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 3.8. The market has DAL at -6.5.
The model projects 49.1 combined points. The market total is 53.0.
Week 17 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 27, DAL 17 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: ARI +0.122 against DAL +0.187.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
