Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 70% win probability. The margin models project DAL by 7.2. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Dallas Cowboys at 70% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 8 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 27, DAL 17 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Dallas Cowboys: ARI -0.142 against DAL -0.066.
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average. Last synced Sun 1:00 PM ET.
OPEN · CURRENT · MODEL
MARKET
OPEN
CURRENT
MODEL
SPREAD
DAL -10.5
DAL -10.5
DAL -7.2
MONEYLINE
DAL -500
DAL -535
DAL -238
DAL's moneyline moved from -500 to -535 since it opened.
OPEN is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the true market opener. OPEN and CURRENT are the median across books, rounded to the half point. CURRENT excludes any price posted after kickoff.
44.1% (19)Defense success %51.8% (32)
-0.003 (19)Pass EPA / play+0.202 (7)
-0.045 (17)Rush EPA / play-0.013 (14)
21.6 (23)Points / game27.6 (7)
32.4 (32)Points allowed / game27.2 (25)
63.8%Pass rate65.1%
63.6%Red zone TD %73.3%
17.9%4th down go %15.4%
CardinalsCowboys
Likely final margins. Each team's shaded area is its win probability and the marker is our line. Four times in five the real margin lands between Cardinals by 10 and Cowboys by 25. The peak is where we lean, not a forecast of the score.