2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ TB – Week 18 2024
NO
TB
NO
AWAY
19@27
TB +8
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 76%Projected margin: 9.0
TB
PICK SIDE
-14.5
SPREAD
9.0
PROJ MARGIN
-806
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 9.0. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -806 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -1050 | Won · +$0.12 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NO
A.Kamara
RB
265.3SEASON PPR
D.Carr
QB
150.9SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
122.8SEASON PPR
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW4 2023 | TB 26, NO 9 | TB | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES