Saints vs Buccaneers – Week 18 2024
NO
TB
NO
AWAY
19@27
TB BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 19, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Saints, 4 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 76%Our line: TB -9.5
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -14.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -9.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.101Net EPA / play+0.115
-0.057 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.130 (5)
+0.044 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (17)
40.6% (23)Offense success %49.5% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 9.5. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW4 2023 | TB 26, NO 9 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 9.5. The market has TB at -14.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, NO 19, TB 27. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -14.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 14.5 points.
In Week 18, the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 1.8 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 24, TB 20 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: NO -0.101 against TB +0.115.
