49ers vs Cardinals – Week 18 2024
SF
ARI
SF
AWAY
24@47
ARI BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 24, Arizona Cardinals 47.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 49ers, 1 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 65%Our line: ARI -5.1
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -5.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.028Net EPA / play+0.011
+0.069 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.067 (11)
+0.041 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.056 (26)
46.1% (11)Offense success %47.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 5.1. Actual: 23. Off by 17.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SFW3 2026 | ARI 30, SF 36 | SF | W |
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
| SF@ARIW15 2023 | SF 45, ARI 29 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 5.1. The market has ARI at -4.5.
Arizona Cardinals won, SF 24, ARI 47. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -4.5, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 18, the San Francisco 49ers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 4.1 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, ARI 30, SF 36 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.028 against ARI +0.011.
