2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ ARI – Week 18 2024
SF
ARI
SF
AWAY
24@47
ARI +23
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ARI
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: ARI 65%Projected margin: 3.1
ARI
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
3.1
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 3.1. Actual: 23. Off by 19.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -192 | Won · +$0.52 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
210.5SEASON PPR
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
| SF@ARIW15 2023 | SF 45, ARI 29 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW4 2023 | ARI 16, SF 35 | SF | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES