BUF @ NE – Week 18 2024
BUF
NE
BUF
AWAY
16@23
NE BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 83%Our line: BUF -13.1
BUF
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-13.1
OUR LINE
-504
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.197Net EPA / play-0.153
+0.189Offense EPA / play-0.083
-0.009Defense EPA / play+0.070
47.5%Offense success %42.4%
44.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but NE won. Projected margin was 13.1, the model overestimated by 20.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -166 | +140 |
| Our fair price | -504 | +504 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
83%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+23%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
14 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3 SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7 SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
182.5 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
J.Allen3731 yd · 28 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
J.Cook1009 yd · 16 TD
J.Allen531 yd · 12 TD
R.Davis442 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
K.Shakir76 rec · 821 yd · 4 TD
K.Coleman29 rec · 556 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
| NE@BUFW17 2023 | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NEW7 2023 | BUF 25, NE 29 | BUF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 83% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 13.1. The market has BUF at -3.0.
The model projects 43.2 combined points. The market total is 36.5.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 35, NE 31 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.197 against NE -0.153.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
