Bills vs Patriots – Week 18 2024
BUF
NE
BUF
AWAY
16@23
NE BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 16, New England Patriots 23.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 83% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bills, 4 Patriots.
Model confidence: BUF 83%Our line: BUF -13.1
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -13.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
83%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.197Net EPA / play-0.153
+0.189 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.083 (27)
-0.009 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (29)
47.5% (7)Offense success %42.4% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but NE won. Projected margin was 13.1, the model overestimated by 20.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
14 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BUFW4 2026 | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
| NE@BUFW17 2023 | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NE
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 83% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 13.1. The market has BUF at -3.0.
New England Patriots won, BUF 16, NE 23. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 83% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -3.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 18, the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.2, 6.7 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 29, BUF 26 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.197 against NE -0.153.
