NO @ TEN – Week 17 2025
NO
TEN
NO
AWAY
34@26
NO BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: NO 63%Our line: NO -4.4
NO
PICK SIDE
-1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.4
OUR LINE
-168
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.029Net EPA / play-0.260
-0.088Offense EPA / play-0.160
-0.059Defense EPA / play+0.100
42.0%Offense success %37.4%
41.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 4.4. Actual: 8. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -120 | +100 |
| Our fair price | -168 | +168 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.81
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
52%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0 SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9 SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
158.0 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
T.Shough2384 yd · 10 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
A.Kamara471 yd · 1 TD
D.Neal206 yd · 2 TD
A.Estime198 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
C.Olave100 rec · 1163 yd · 9 TD
J.Johnson77 rec · 889 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@NOW1 2023 | TEN 15, NO 16 | NO | W |
| NO@TENW10 2021 | NO 21, TEN 23 | TEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 4.4. The market has NO at -1.5.
The model projects 45.9 combined points. The market total is 39.5.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, TEN 15, NO 16 in Week 1 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New Orleans Saints: NO -0.029 against TEN -0.260.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
