Saints vs Titans – Week 17 2025
NO
TEN
NO
AWAY
34@26
NO BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 34, Tennessee Titans 26.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Saints, 3 Titans.
Model confidence: NO 63%Our line: NO -4.4
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -4.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.029Net EPA / play-0.260
-0.088 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.160 (30)
-0.059 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.100 (28)
42.0% (26)Offense success %37.4% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 4.4. Actual: 8. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@NOW1 2023 | TEN 15, NO 16 | NO | W |
| NO@TENW10 2021 | NO 21, TEN 23 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs TEN
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 4.4. The market has NO at -1.5.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 34, TEN 26. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -1.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 17, the New Orleans Saints were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 6.4 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, TEN 15, NO 16 in Week 1 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New Orleans Saints: NO -0.029 against TEN -0.260.
