2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ TEN – Week 17 2025
NO
TEN
NO
AWAY
34@26
NO +8
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NO 63%Projected margin: -1.3
NO
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-1.3
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 1.3. Actual: 8. Off by 6.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.81 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
14 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
158.0SEASON PPR
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@NOW1 2023 | TEN 15, NO 16 | NO | W |
| NO@TENW10 2021 | NO 21, TEN 23 | TEN | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES