2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ TEN – Week 10 2021
NO
TEN
NO
AWAY
21@23
TEN +2
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TEN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TEN 52%Projected margin: 0.1
TEN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
0.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 0.1. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -147 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
121.7SEASON PPR
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
268.4SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
193.3SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TENW17 2025 | NO 34, TEN 26 | NO | W |
| TEN@NOW1 2023 | TEN 15, NO 16 | NO | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES