NO @ TEN – Week 10 2021
NO
TEN
NO
AWAY
21@23
TEN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: TEN 52%Our line: TEN -0.6
TEN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.6
OUR LINE
-107
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.074Offense EPA / play+0.022
-0.109Defense EPA / play-0.033
40.6%Offense success %44.6%
39.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 0.6. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +133 | -147 |
| Our fair price | +107 | -107 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TEN -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for TEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7 SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8 SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
121.7 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Jameis Winston1170 yd · 14 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
Alvin Kamara898 yd · 4 TD
Mark Ingram260 yd · 1 TD
Jameis Winston166 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Marquez Callaway46 rec · 698 yd · 6 TD
Deonte Harty36 rec · 570 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TENW17 2025 | NO 34, TEN 26 | NO | W |
| TEN@NOW1 2023 | TEN 15, NO 16 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TEN by 0.6. The market has TEN at -3.0.
The model projects 47.8 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 34, TEN 26 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tennessee Titans: NO +0.035 against TEN +0.055.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
