Saints vs Titans – Week 10 2021
NO
TEN
NO
AWAY
21@23
TEN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 21, Tennessee Titans 23.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Saints, 3 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 52%Our line: TEN -0.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -0.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.074 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.022 (15)
-0.109 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.033 (9)
40.6% (28)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 0.6. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Jameis Winston1170 yd · 14 TD · 3 INT
RECEIVING
Marquez Callaway46 rec · 698 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TENW17 2025 | NO 34, TEN 26 | NO | W |
| TEN@NOW1 2023 | TEN 15, NO 16 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TEN by 0.6. The market has TEN at -3.0.
Tennessee Titans won, NO 21, TEN 23. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -3.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 10, the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 3.8 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 34, TEN 26 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tennessee Titans: NO +0.035 against TEN +0.055.
