Buccaneers vs Commanders – Week 10 2021
TB
WAS
TB
AWAY
19@29
WAS BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19, Washington Commanders 29.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Buccaneers, 3 Commanders.
Model confidence: TB 68%Our line: TB -6.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -6.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.217Net EPA / play-0.124
+0.137 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (21)
-0.080 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.067 (26)
49.4% (2)Offense success %43.9% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but WAS won. Projected margin was 6.2, the model overestimated by 16.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady5316 yd · 43 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Leonard Fournette812 yd · 8 TD
Ronald Jones428 yd · 4 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn180 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Godwin Jr.98 rec · 1103 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs WAS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project TB by 6.2. The market has TB at -10.0.
Washington Commanders won, TB 19, WAS 29. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -10.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 10, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 3.2 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, WAS 20, TB 37 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.217 against WAS -0.124.
