2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ WAS – Week 10 2021
TB
WAS
TB
AWAY
19@29
WAS +10
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
WAS
HOME
TIER A
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 68%Projected margin: -6.2
TB
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
-6.2
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but WAS won. Projected margin was 6.2 -- the model overestimated by 16.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -435 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6SEASON PPR
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@TBW1 2024 | WAS 20, TB 37 | TB | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES