Commanders vs Buccaneers – Week 1 2024
WAS
TB
WAS
AWAY
20@37
TB BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Commanders, 1 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 73%Our line: TB -8.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -8.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
64%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
| SOURCE | WAS | TB | TB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +164 | -198 | 64.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.128Net EPA / play+0.115
+0.139 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.130 (5)
+0.011 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (17)
48.5% (4)Offense success %49.5% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 8.1. Actual: 17. Off by 8.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
No noteworthy trends
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
93°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@WASW10 2021 | TB 19, WAS 29 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 8.1. The market has TB at -4.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, WAS 20, TB 37. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -4.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 1, the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Washington Commanders, TB 19, WAS 29 in Week 10 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: WAS +0.128 against TB +0.115.
