WAS @ TB · Week 1 2024

Q: Who is favored in Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 8.1. The market has TB at -4.0.

Q: When do the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers play?

Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.

Q: Who won the last Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game?

Washington Commanders, TB 19, WAS 29 in Week 10 of 2021.

Q: Which team has been better, the Washington Commanders or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: WAS +0.128 against TB +0.115.

WAS

AWAY

20@37

TB BY 17

FINAL · WEEK 1

2024 SEASON

Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL

HOME

PICK: TB

TIER A+

PICK WONATS ✓

WAS 27%

TB 73%

Model confidence: TB 73%

Our line: TB -8.1

PICK SIDE

-4.0

MARKET SPREAD

-8.1

OUR LINE

-266

OUR ML

—

LIVE ML

COVERED

VS SPREAD

TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1

WAS	METRIC	TB
+0.128	NET EPA/PLAY	+0.115
+0.139	OFF EPA/PLAY	+0.130
+0.011	DEF EPA/PLAY	+0.015
485	POINTS FOR	502
391	POINTS AGAINST	385
52.8%	PASS RATE	56.5%

EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE

+0.128Net EPA / play+0.115

+0.139Offense EPA / play+0.130

+0.011Defense EPA / play+0.015

48.5%Offense success %49.5%

43.2%Defense success %

GAME NARRATIVE

TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.

CORRECT

Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 8.1. Actual: 17. Off by 8.9 points but directionally right.

COVERED

This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.

Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.

BETTING LINE

SOURCE	WAS	TB
Closing line	+164	-198
Our fair price	+266	-266

Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.

SPREAD TB -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56

OUR NUMBER

73%

MARKET, VIG REMOVED

64%

DIFFERENCE

+9%

Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.

SITUATIONAL TRENDS

Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.

WAS

No noteworthy trends

TB

divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)

GAME WEATHER

VENUE

OUTDOOR

TEMP

93°F

WIND

6 MPH

IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY

TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON

WAS

J.Daniels

QB

355.8 SEASON PPR

T.McLaurin

WR

267.8 SEASON PPR

Z.Ertz

TE

177.4 SEASON PPR

TB

DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT

Washington Commanders

PASSING

J.Daniels3568 yd · 25 TD · 9 INT

RUSHING

J.Daniels891 yd · 6 TD

B.Robinson799 yd · 8 TD

A.Ekeler367 yd · 4 TD

RECEIVING

T.McLaurin82 rec · 1096 yd · 13 TD

Z.Ertz66 rec · 654 yd · 7 TD

INJURY REPORTWEEK 1

WAS2 LISTED

Marcus Mariota

QB · Chest

OUT

Jer'Zhan Newton

DT · Foot

DOUBTFUL

TB3 LISTED

HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING

GAME	SCORE	PICK	RESULT
TB@WASW10 2021	TB 19, WAS 29	TB	L

FULL COMPARISON →

COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs TB

QUESTIONS

Who is favored in Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

When do the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers play?

Who won the last Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game?

Which team has been better, the Washington Commanders or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

WHAT PRO ADDS

Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.

See the Edge