NE @ CIN – Week 1 2024
NE
CIN
NE
AWAY
16@10
NE BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 69%Our line: CIN -6.7
CIN
PICK SIDE
-8.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.7
OUR LINE
-223
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.153Net EPA / play+0.053
-0.083Offense EPA / play+0.090
+0.070Defense EPA / play+0.037
42.4%Offense success %47.2%
45.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but NE won. Projected margin was 6.7, the model overestimated by 12.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +295 | -375 |
| Our fair price | +223 | -223 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -8.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
76%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
177.1 SEASON PPR
R.Stevenson
RB
175.9 SEASON PPR
D.Douglas
WR
147.7 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
D.Maye2276 yd · 15 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
R.Stevenson801 yd · 7 TD
A.Gibson538 yd · 1 TD
D.Maye421 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
H.Henry66 rec · 674 yd · 2 TD
D.Douglas66 rec · 621 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@CINW12 2025 | NE 26, CIN 20 | NE | W |
| CIN@NEW16 2022 | CIN 22, NE 18 | CIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 6.7. The market has CIN at -8.0.
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 26, CIN 20 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: NE -0.153 against CIN +0.053.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
