2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ CIN – Week 1 2024
NE
CIN
NE
AWAY
16@10
NE +6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CIN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CIN 69%Projected margin: 5.1
CIN
PICK SIDE
-8.0
SPREAD
5.1
PROJ MARGIN
-316
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but NE won. Projected margin was 5.1 -- the model overestimated by 11.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.0 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -316 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -375 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
No noteworthy trends
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
177.1SEASON PPR
R.Stevenson
RB
175.9SEASON PPR
D.Douglas
WR
147.7SEASON PPR
CIN
J.Chase
WR
403.0SEASON PPR
J.Burrow
QB
372.8SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@CINW12 2025 | NE 26, CIN 20 | NE | W |
| CIN@NEW16 2022 | CIN 22, NE 18 | CIN | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES