Patriots vs Bengals – Week 1 2024
NE
CIN
NE
AWAY
16@10
NE BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 16, Cincinnati Bengals 10.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots, 3 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 69%Our line: CIN -6.7
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -6.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
CIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
77%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
| SOURCE | NE | CIN | CIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +295 | -375 | 76.8% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.153Net EPA / play+0.053
-0.083 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.090 (7)
+0.070 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (22)
42.4% (19)Offense success %47.2% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but NE won. Projected margin was 6.7, the model overestimated by 12.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@CINW12 2025 | NE 26, CIN 20 | NE | W |
| CIN@NEW16 2022 | CIN 22, NE 18 | CIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 6.7. The market has CIN at -8.0.
New England Patriots won, NE 16, CIN 10. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -8.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 1, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 26, CIN 20 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: NE -0.153 against CIN +0.053.
