Steelers vs Falcons – Week 1 2024
PIT
ATL
PIT
AWAY
18@10
PIT BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 18, Atlanta Falcons 10.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Steelers, 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: PIT 65%Our line: PIT -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -5.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
PIT · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
36%
DIFFERENCE
+29%
| SOURCE | PIT | ATL | PIT WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +160 | -192 | 36.4% |
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.027
-0.034 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (13)
-0.018 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.061 (27)
40.4% (27)Offense success %48.1% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 5.0. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 3.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@PITW1 2026 | ATL 13, PIT 20 | PIT | W |
| PIT@ATLW13 2022 | PIT 19, ATL 16 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs ATL
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 5.0. The market has PIT at +4.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 18, ATL 10. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +4.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 1, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, ATL 13, PIT 20 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -0.016 against ATL -0.027.
