Rams vs Lions – Week 1 2024
LA
DET
LA
AWAY
20@26
DET BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 20, Detroit Lions 26.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 61%Our line: DET -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -5.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -3.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
DET · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
67%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
| SOURCE | LA | DET | DET WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +185 | -225 | 67.1% |
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.030Net EPA / play+0.232
+0.014 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.170 (3)
+0.044 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.062 (6)
46.8% (10)Offense success %50.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 3.6. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@LAW15 2025 | DET 34, LA 41 | LA | W |
| DET@LAW7 2021 | DET 19, LA 28 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 3.6. The market has DET at -5.0.
Detroit Lions won, LA 20, DET 26. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -5.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 5.0 points.
In Week 1, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, DET 34, LA 41 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: LA -0.030 against DET +0.232.
