LA @ DET – Week 1 2024
LA
DET
LA
AWAY
20@26
DET BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 61%Our line: DET -3.6
DET
PICK SIDE
-5.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.6
OUR LINE
-154
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.030Net EPA / play+0.232
+0.014Offense EPA / play+0.170
+0.044Defense EPA / play-0.062
46.8%Offense success %50.1%
45.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 3.6. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +185 | -225 |
| Our fair price | +154 | -154 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -5.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.49
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
66%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LA
K.Williams
RB
272.1 SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
214.6 SEASON PPR
P.Nacua
WR
206.6 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
M.Stafford3762 yd · 20 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
K.Williams1299 yd · 14 TD
B.Corum207 yd · 0 TD
R.Rivers99 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
P.Nacua79 rec · 990 yd · 3 TD
C.Kupp67 rec · 710 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@LAW15 2025 | DET 34, LA 41 | LA | W |
| DET@LAW7 2021 | DET 19, LA 28 | LA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 3.6. The market has DET at -5.0.
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, DET 34, LA 41 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: LA -0.030 against DET +0.232.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
