Raiders vs Chargers – Week 1 2024
LV
LAC
LV
AWAY
10@22
LAC BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 10, Los Angeles Chargers 22.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Raiders, 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: LV 64%Our line: LV -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
LV +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -4.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
LV · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
41%
DIFFERENCE
+23%
| SOURCE | LV | LAC | LV WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +130 | -155 | 41.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.164Net EPA / play+0.100
-0.143 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.039 (12)
+0.021 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.061 (7)
40.5% (26)Offense success %42.0% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but LAC won. Projected margin was 4.7, the model overestimated by 16.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Minshew2013 yd · 9 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
A.Mattison420 yd · 4 TD
A.Abdullah311 yd · 2 TD
Z.White183 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
B.Bowers112 rec · 1194 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW2 2026 | LV 26, LAC 14 | LAC | L |
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW15 2023 | LAC 21, LV 63 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs LAC
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 4.7. The market has LV at +3.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LV 10, LAC 22. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at +3.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 26, LAC 14 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LV -0.164 against LAC +0.100.
