2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ LAC – Week 1 2024
LV
LAC
LV
AWAY
10@22
LAC +12
FINAL · WEEK 1
2024 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 64%Projected margin: -2.6
LV
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-2.6
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but LAC won. Projected margin was 2.6 -- the model overestimated by 14.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LV
B.Bowers
TE
262.7SEASON PPR
J.Meyers
WR
218.0SEASON PPR
A.Mattison
RB
137.4SEASON PPR
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
285.4SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
J.Dobbins
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW15 2023 | LAC 21, LV 63 | LV | W |
| LV@LACW4 2023 | LV 17, LAC 24 | LAC | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES