LV @ LAC – Week 2 2026
LV
LAC
LV
AWAY
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 2 · 2026 SEASON
LAC
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: LAC 78%Projected margin: -9.1
LAC
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
-9.1
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.059
-0.215Offense EPA / play-0.024
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.083
37.6%Offense success %43.1%
45.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on LAC at 78% confidence.
EPA EDGE
LAC generates -0.024 EPA/play on offense. LV's defense allows 0.024. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
LAC is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
H2H EDGE
LAC has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against LV.
RED ZONE
LAC converts 79% in the red zone vs 61% for LV. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.1-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Multiple signals align in LAC's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Smith3025 yd · 19 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
A.Jeanty975 yd · 5 TD
G.Smith109 yd · 0 TD
R.Mostert104 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Tucker57 rec · 696 yd · 5 TD
B.Bowers64 rec · 680 yd · 7 TD
J.Meyers33 rec · 352 yd · 0 TD
A.Jeanty55 rec · 346 yd · 5 TD
VS
3,025PASSyds3,727
1,188RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@LVW14 2026 | — | LAC | — |
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs LAC
Who is favored in Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers?
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project LAC by 9.1. The market has LAC at -8.5.
When do the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers play?
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Who won the last Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers game?
Los Angeles Chargers, 14-31 in Week 13 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Las Vegas Raiders or the Los Angeles Chargers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LV -0.240 against LAC +0.059.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
