CLE @ TB – Week 2 2026
CLE
TB
CLE
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 2 · 2026 SEASON
TB
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: TB 69%Projected margin: -4.7
TB
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-4.7
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.094Net EPA / play-0.022
-0.190Offense EPA / play-0.009
-0.096Defense EPA / play+0.013
34.5%Offense success %42.4%
40.2%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors TB (B-tier, 69% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
TB is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
DRIVE EFF
TB scores 1.6 points per drive vs 1.0 for CLE. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for TB. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
120.7SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
S.Sanders1400 yd · 7 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Q.Judkins827 yd · 7 TD
D.Sampson175 yd · 0 TD
S.Sanders169 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
H.Fannin72 rec · 731 yd · 6 TD
J.Jeudy50 rec · 602 yd · 2 TD
I.Bond18 rec · 338 yd · 0 TD
D.Njoku33 rec · 293 yd · 4 TD
VS
1,400PASSyds3,693
1,171RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@CLEW12 2022 | TB 17, CLE 23 | TB | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs TB
Who is favored in Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 4.7. The market has TB at -5.5.
When do the Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers play?
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game?
Cleveland Browns, 17-23 in Week 12 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Cleveland Browns or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CLE -0.094 against TB -0.022.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
