Browns vs Buccaneers – Week 2 2026
CLE
TB
CLE
AWAY
23@19
CLE BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 2
2026 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Browns.
Model confidence: TB 69%Our line: TB -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.058Net EPA / play-0.031
-0.080 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (27)
-0.022 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.057 (7)
39.1% (28)Offense success %40.9% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but CLE won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 10.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
D.Watson1010 yd · 7 TD · 2 INT
RECEIVING
D.Boston16 rec · 330 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@CLEW12 2022 | TB 17, CLE 23 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 6.8. The market has TB at -8.5.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 23, TB 19. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -8.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 2, the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 2.3 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, TB 17, CLE 23 in Week 12 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CLE -0.058 against TB -0.031.
