NO @ BAL – Week 2 2026
NO
BAL
NO
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 2 · 2026 SEASON
BAL
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: BAL 65%Projected margin: -3.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
-3.9
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.029Net EPA / play+0.010
-0.088Offense EPA / play+0.034
-0.059Defense EPA / play+0.024
42.0%Offense success %44.6%
41.8%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors BAL (B-tier, 65% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
BAL is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
DRIVE EFF
BAL scores 1.9 points per drive vs 1.1 for NO. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for BAL. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
158.0SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
T.Shough2384 yd · 10 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
A.Kamara471 yd · 1 TD
D.Neal206 yd · 2 TD
A.Estime198 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
C.Olave100 rec · 1163 yd · 9 TD
J.Johnson77 rec · 889 yd · 3 TD
R.Shaheed44 rec · 499 yd · 2 TD
D.Vele25 rec · 293 yd · 2 TD
VS
2,384PASSyds2,549
875RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@NOW9 2022 | BAL 27, NO 13 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs BAL
Who is favored in New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens?
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 3.9. The market has BAL at -7.5.
When do the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens play?
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens game?
Baltimore Ravens, 27-13 in Week 9 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the New Orleans Saints or the Baltimore Ravens?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: NO -0.029 against BAL +0.010.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
