Lions vs Bills – Week 2 2026
DET
BUF
DET
AWAY
31@41
BUF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 2
2026 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions.
Model confidence: BUF 69%Our line: BUF -6.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.029Net EPA / play+0.077
+0.180 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.210 (1)
+0.152 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.134 (30)
49.1% (4)Offense success %49.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 6.6. Actual: 10. Off by 3.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@DETW15 2024 | BUF 48, DET 42 | DET | L |
| BUF@DETW12 2022 | BUF 28, DET 25 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.6. The market has BUF at -4.5.
Buffalo Bills won, DET 31, BUF 41. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -4.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 2, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.3, 2.2 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 2 of the 2026 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 48, DET 42 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Buffalo Bills: DET +0.029 against BUF +0.077.
