DET @ BUF – Week 2 2026
DET
BUF
DET
AWAY
@
THU 8:15 PM
WEEK 2 · 2026 SEASON
BUF
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: BUF 71%Projected margin: -6.0
BUF
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-6.0
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.091Net EPA / play+0.152
+0.081Offense EPA / play+0.136
-0.010Defense EPA / play-0.016
45.2%Offense success %48.5%
41.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors BUF (A-tier, 71% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
BUF is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
BUF goes for it on 4th down 32% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
Net-positive signal profile for BUF. Grade: A.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
366.9SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
324.0SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
297.1SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
J.Goff4564 yd · 34 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Gibbs1223 yd · 13 TD
D.Montgomery716 yd · 8 TD
J.Goff45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.St. Brown117 rec · 1401 yd · 11 TD
J.Williams65 rec · 1117 yd · 7 TD
J.Gibbs77 rec · 616 yd · 5 TD
S.LaPorta40 rec · 489 yd · 3 TD
VS
4,564PASSyds3,668
1,984RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@DETW15 2024 | BUF 48, DET 42 | DET | L |
| BUF@DETW12 2022 | BUF 28, DET 25 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs BUF
Who is favored in Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills?
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.0. The market has BUF at -3.0.
When do the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills play?
Week 2 of the 2026 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Who won the last Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills game?
Buffalo Bills, 48-42 in Week 15 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Detroit Lions or the Buffalo Bills?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: DET +0.091 against BUF +0.152.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
