Bills vs Lions – Week 12 2022
BUF
DET
BUF
AWAY
28@25
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 28, Detroit Lions 25.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bills, 5 Lions.
Model confidence: BUF 67%Our line: BUF -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -6.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.168Net EPA / play-0.006
+0.116 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (6)
-0.052 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.078 (30)
49.0% (2)Offense success %45.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 6.0. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 3.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@BUFW2 2026 | DET 31, BUF 41 | BUF | W |
| BUF@DETW15 2024 | BUF 48, DET 42 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs DET
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.0. The market has BUF at -10.0.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 28, DET 25. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -10.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 12, the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 6.3 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, THU 12:30 PM.
Buffalo Bills, DET 31, BUF 41 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.168 against DET -0.006.
