2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ DET – Week 12 2022
BUF
DET
BUF
AWAY
28@25
BUF +3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 67%Projected margin: -5.2
BUF
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
-5.2
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 5.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -412 | Won · +$0.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
395.5SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
316.6SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
177.9SEASON PPR
DET
Jared Goff
QB
284.3SEASON PPR
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
267.6SEASON PPR
Jamaal Williams
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@DETW15 2024 | BUF 48, DET 42 | DET | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES