BUF @ DET – Week 12 2022
BUF
DET
BUF
AWAY
28@25
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 67%Our line: BUF -6.0
BUF
PICK SIDE
-10.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.0
OUR LINE
-204
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.168Net EPA / play-0.006
+0.116Offense EPA / play+0.072
-0.052Defense EPA / play+0.078
49.0%Offense success %45.6%
43.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 6.0. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 3.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -412 | +342 |
| Our fair price | -204 | +204 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -10.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.24
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
395.5 SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
316.6 SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
177.9 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
Josh Allen4283 yd · 35 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Devin Singletary819 yd · 5 TD
Josh Allen762 yd · 7 TD
James Cook507 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Stefon Diggs108 rec · 1429 yd · 11 TD
Gabe Davis48 rec · 836 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@DETW15 2024 | BUF 48, DET 42 | DET | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.0. The market has BUF at -10.0.
The model projects 47.7 combined points. The market total is 54.0.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, THU 12:30 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 48, DET 42 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.168 against DET -0.006.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
