2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ TEN – Week 12 2022
CIN
TEN
CIN
AWAY
20@16
CIN +4
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TEN 61%Projected margin: 2.4
TEN
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
2.4
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but CIN won. Projected margin was 2.4 -- the model overestimated by 6.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -105 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
14 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
350.7SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
242.4SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
239.5SEASON PPR
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
302.8SEASON PPR
Ryan Tannehill
QB
161.2SEASON PPR
Robert Woods
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@TENW15 2024 | CIN 37, TEN 27 | CIN | W |
| CIN@TENW4 2023 | CIN 3, TEN 27 | CIN | L |
| TEN@CINW8 2020 | TEN 20, CIN 31 | TEN | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES