Bengals vs Titans – Week 12 2022
CIN
TEN
CIN
AWAY
20@16
CIN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 20, Tennessee Titans 16.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals, 1 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 61%Our line: TEN -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -3.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.125Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.077 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (25)
-0.048 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (18)
47.3% (4)Offense success %41.1% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but CIN won. Projected margin was 3.8, the model overestimated by 7.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@TENW15 2024 | CIN 37, TEN 27 | CIN | W |
| CIN@TENW4 2023 | CIN 3, TEN 27 | CIN | L |
| TEN@CINW8 2020 | TEN 20, CIN 31 | TEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 3.8. The market has TEN at +1.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 20, TEN 16. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tennessee Titans at +1.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 12, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 4.0 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 37, TEN 27 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.125 against TEN -0.064.
