CIN @ TEN – Week 12 2022
CIN
TEN
CIN
AWAY
20@16
CIN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: TEN 61%Our line: TEN -3.8
TEN
PICK SIDE
+1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.8
OUR LINE
-157
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.125Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.077Offense EPA / play-0.059
-0.048Defense EPA / play+0.004
47.3%Offense success %41.1%
41.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but CIN won. Projected margin was 3.8, the model overestimated by 7.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -105 | -105 |
| Our fair price | +157 | -157 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TEN +1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
50%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
Both figures are for TEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
350.7 SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
242.4 SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
239.5 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow4475 yd · 35 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon814 yd · 7 TD
Samaje Perine394 yd · 2 TD
Joe Burrow257 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Ja'Marr Chase87 rec · 1046 yd · 9 TD
Tee Higgins74 rec · 1029 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@TENW15 2024 | CIN 37, TEN 27 | CIN | W |
| CIN@TENW4 2023 | CIN 3, TEN 27 | CIN | L |
| TEN@CINW8 2020 | TEN 20, CIN 31 | TEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 3.8. The market has TEN at +1.0.
The model projects 47.0 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 37, TEN 27 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.125 against TEN -0.064.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
