Rams vs Chiefs – Week 12 2022
LA
KC
LA
AWAY
10@26
KC BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 10, Kansas City Chiefs 26.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Rams, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 77%Our line: KC -10.1
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -16.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -10.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.204
-0.088 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.186 (1)
+0.017 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.019 (14)
41.0% (23)Offense success %50.4% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 10.1. Actual: 16. Off by 5.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
44°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project KC by 10.1. The market has KC at -16.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, LA 10, KC 26. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -16.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 16.5 points.
In Week 12, the Los Angeles Rams were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 3.8 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: LA -0.105 against KC +0.204.
