Buccaneers vs Browns – Week 12 2022
TB
CLE
TB
AWAY
17@23
CLE BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17, Cleveland Browns 23.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Buccaneers, 1 Browns.
Model confidence: TB 67%Our line: TB -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -6.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.013Net EPA / play-0.001
-0.038 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (10)
-0.025 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.014 (22)
43.8% (20)Offense success %44.0% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but CLE won. Projected margin was 6.0, the model overestimated by 12.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4694 yd · 25 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Mike Evans77 rec · 1124 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs CLE
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 6.0. The market has TB at -3.0.
Cleveland Browns won, TB 17, CLE 23. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 4.2 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 23, TB 19 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cleveland Browns: TB -0.013 against CLE -0.001.
