2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ CLE – Week 12 2022
TB
CLE
TB
AWAY
17@23
CLE +6
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 67%Projected margin: -3.2
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-3.2
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but CLE won. Projected margin was 3.2 -- the model overestimated by 9.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -169 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
14 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4SEASON PPR
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
281.4SEASON PPR
Amari Cooper
WR
246.0SEASON PPR
Jacoby Brissett
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES