Steelers vs Colts – Week 12 2022
PIT
IND
PIT
AWAY
24@17
PIT BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Indianapolis Colts 17.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Steelers.
Model confidence: IND 57%Our line: IND -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -2.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.012Net EPA / play-0.141
+0.012 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.168 (31)
+0.024 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.027 (11)
45.1% (12)Offense success %39.8% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but PIT won. Projected margin was 2.4, the model overestimated by 9.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
No noteworthy trends
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2404 yd · 7 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson86 rec · 882 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@PITW5 2026 | IND 22, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| IND@PITW9 2025 | IND 20, PIT 27 | IND | L |
| PIT@INDW4 2024 | PIT 24, IND 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW15 2023 | PIT 13, IND 30 | PIT | L |
| IND@PITW16 2020 | IND 24, PIT 28 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 2.4. The market has IND at -2.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 24, IND 17. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -2.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 12, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 7.7 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, IND 22, PIT 34 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -0.012 against IND -0.141.
