2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ IND – Week 12 2022
PIT
IND
PIT
AWAY
24@17
PIT +7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 57%Projected margin: 1.1
IND
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
1.1
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but PIT won. Projected margin was 1.1 -- the model overestimated by 8.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -128 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
No noteworthy trends
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
225.5SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
180.7SEASON PPR
George Pickens
WR
166.5SEASON PPR
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
216.5SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
155.3SEASON PPR
Parris Campbell
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@PITW9 2025 | IND 20, PIT 27 | IND | L |
| PIT@INDW4 2024 | PIT 24, IND 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW15 2023 | PIT 13, IND 30 | PIT | L |
| IND@PITW16 2020 | IND 24, PIT 28 | IND | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES