IND @ KC – Week 2 2026
IND
KC
IND
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 8:20 PM
WEEK 2 · 2026 SEASON
KC
HOME
Model confidence: IND 59%Projected margin: +0.3
IND
PICK SIDE
+6.5
SPREAD
+0.3
PROJ MARGIN
+255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.068Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.072Offense EPA / play+0.035
+0.004Defense EPA / play-0.020
46.3%Offense success %44.5%
45.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors IND (C-tier, 59% confidence).
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
IND goes for it on 4th down 26% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
RED ZONE
IND converts 95% in the red zone vs 74% for KC. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
IND scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.6 for KC. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for IND. Grade: C.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +6.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | +255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
202.4SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
D.Jones3101 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1585 yd · 18 TD
D.Jones164 yd · 5 TD
D.Giddens96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce47 rec · 1003 yd · 6 TD
T.Warren76 rec · 817 yd · 4 TD
M.Pittman80 rec · 784 yd · 7 TD
J.Downs58 rec · 566 yd · 4 TD
VS
3,101PASSyds3,587
1,845RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@KCW12 2025 | IND 20, KC 23 | IND | L |
| KC@INDW3 2022 | KC 17, IND 20 | KC | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs KC
Who is favored in Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs?
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 0.3. The market has IND at +6.5.
When do the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs play?
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Who won the last Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs game?
Kansas City Chiefs, 20-23 in Week 12 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Indianapolis Colts or the Kansas City Chiefs?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.068 against KC +0.055.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
