Colts vs Chiefs – Week 2 2026
IND
KC
IND
AWAY
30@33
KC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2026 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Colts, 2 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 63%Our line: KC -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
Early season: 4 games played for at least one team. These numbers and ranks will move fast.
-0.150Net EPA / play+0.222
-0.051 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.172 (4)
+0.099 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.050 (8)
42.2% (19)Offense success %48.6%
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 4.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@KCW12 2025 | IND 20, KC 23 | IND | L |
| KC@INDW3 2022 | KC 17, IND 20 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 4.6. The market has KC at -6.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, IND 30, KC 33. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -6.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 2, the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 0.9 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, IND 20, KC 23 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Kansas City Chiefs: IND -0.150 against KC +0.222.
