Chargers vs Raiders – Week 15 2023
LAC
LV
LAC
AWAY
21@63
LV BY 42
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 21, Las Vegas Raiders 63.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chargers, 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 50%Our line: LV +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.088Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.076 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.097 (25)
+0.012 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
41.0% (22)Offense success %41.2% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 42. Off by 42.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 39.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW2 2026 | LV 26, LAC 14 | LAC | L |
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 0.0. The market has LV at -3.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LAC 21, LV 63. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -3.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 15, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 9.9 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 26, LAC 14 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Las Vegas Raiders: LAC -0.088 against LV -0.037.
