Cowboys vs Bills – Week 15 2023
DAL
BUF
DAL
AWAY
10@31
BUF BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 10, Buffalo Bills 31.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: DAL 58%Our line: DAL -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL +2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -2.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.220Net EPA / play+0.182
+0.106 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.108 (2)
-0.114 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.074 (8)
47.4% (3)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. BUF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but BUF won. Projected margin was 2.6, the model overestimated by 23.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs BUF
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 2.6. The market has DAL at +2.0.
Buffalo Bills won, DAL 10, BUF 31. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at +2.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 15, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 4.5 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.220 against BUF +0.182.
